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Practice only · virtual points · no deposits · no cash prizes · not financial advice

Will Bitcoin trade above A$200,000 at any time in 2027?

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Resolves 1 January 2028 · 1 year left · Reserve Bank of Australia

Yes

0.22 points a share

22%

No

0.78 points a share

78%
Yes probability, opening 22% to 22% now.

How this resolves

Yes if the RBA-published AUD/USD rate and a widely quoted USD Bitcoin index imply an AUD Bitcoin price strictly above 200,000 at any official daily close in 2027. If the RBA does not publish a usable series, settle against the first print of the official ASX Bitcoin index product if one exists; otherwise void.

Trading closes
1 January 2028
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