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Will Australia record a goods trade surplus with China in 2026?

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Resolves 5 February 2027 · 4 months left · Australian Bureau of Statistics

Yes

0.69 points a share

69%

No

0.31 points a share

31%
Yes probability, opening 69% to 69% now.

How this resolves

Yes if the first ABS international merchandise trade release covering calendar 2026 shows Australia goods exports to China exceeding goods imports from China. A deficit or a zero balance resolves No.

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5 February 2027
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