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Will an Australian film win an Oscar in 2027?

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Resolves 1 February 2027 · 4 months left · Academy Awards and Screen Australia

Yes

0.42 points a share

42%

No

0.58 points a share

58%
Yes probability, opening 42% to 42% now.

How this resolves

Yes if an Australian production, identified as such by Screen Australia, wins at least one competitive Academy Award at the 2027 ceremony. Honorary awards do not count. No if none wins.

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1 February 2027
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