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Will the Bureau declare El Nino in 2027?

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Resolves 1 January 2028 · 1 year left · Bureau of Meteorology

Yes

0.36 points a share

36%

No

0.64 points a share

64%
Yes probability, opening 36% to 36% now.

How this resolves

Yes if the Bureau of Meteorology ENSO outlook or climate driver update first classifies the tropical Pacific as El Nino at any time in calendar 2027. A La Nina or ENSO-neutral year with no El Nino declaration resolves No.

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1 January 2028
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