Resolves 29 October 2026 · 36 days left · US Federal Reserve
Yes
0.50 points a share
50%
No
0.50 points a share
50%
Yes probability, opening 50% to 50% now.
How this resolves
Resolves yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the FOMC meeting scheduled for 27-28 October 2026 is the same as it was immediately before that meeting. Resolves no if that upper bound is raised or cut by any amount, including a move smaller than 25 basis points. The deciding facts are the FOMC post-meeting statement and the target rate published by the US Federal Reserve. Only the decision from that scheduled meeting counts; unscheduled moves before or after do not. If the meeting is cancelled and no replacement rate decision is published by 31 October 2026, resolve no. If the meeting is postponed, use the statement from the delayed meeting provided it is published by 14 November 2026; if nothing has been published by then, the market is void. Later minutes, forecasts or revisions do not override the post-meeting statement. If the Fed drops the range and sets a single target, compare that figure with the previous upper bound.